On February 9, New Hampshire voters will begin to winnow the field of presidential contenders. The New Hampshire primary is the first in the series of nationwide party primary elections (Iowa uses a caucus rather than a primary) and since 1952 it has been a major testing ground for candidates for both the Republican and Democratic nominations. Even though only a few delegates will be chosen in the New Hampshire primary, the massive media coverage it receives can make, break, or revive candidacies. One of the unique characteristics of the Granite State primary is that 60 percent of the voters who turn out in the two primaries have met at least one candidate.
Demographically, New Hampshire is very different than the rest of the nation. Its population is 1.5 percent African-American; the country is 13.2 percent African-American. People in New Hampshire are more educated and more likely to be homeowners than are residents of other states.
According to the most recent census data:
A detailed demographic analysis done for the Voter Participation Center shows that unmarried women have a large and vital economic stake in the outcome of the presidential election:
Next up: South Carolina
As we move through this primary season, the Voter Participation Center will profile unmarried women, their role in the electorate and economy in each of the contested states, starting with Iowa.
On February 1, the Iowa caucuses will provide a unique forum for civic engagement. The first official contest in the nominating process for President of the United States is an old-fashioned exercise in participatory democracy. On election night, voters go to designated precent locations to show their support for their candidates, listen to appeals for support from each campaign, and then vote. The caucuses first-in-the-nation position on the calendar gives the state enormous influence on the nation’s politics every four years.
So who shows up in the dead of the midwestern winter to shape America’s future?
Historically, according to an analysis from Drake University in Iowa, Republican caucus goers tend to skew heavily male; Democratic caucus goers tend to skew heavily female.
According to the most recent census data:
A detailed demographic analysis done for the Voter Participation Center shows that unmarried women have a large and vital economic stake in the outcome of the presidential election:
Next up: New Hampshire
We have to admit it: In an age of Facebook, online forms, and email, “snail mail” is a little old-school.
But when you’re talking about voter registration, mail is what works with the Rising American Electorate (unmarried women, people of color, and millennials). Mail was the second most popular means for the RAE to register to vote in 2014, second only to the DMV (thanks, Motor Voter!).
That’s why we put such a heavy emphasis on mail outreach in our voter registration programs, even while we also work to help people register to vote online.
As part of our year-round voter registration program, the Voter Participation Center is helping to register unmarried women, people of color, and young voters—the groups that make up the Rising American Electorate (RAE)—for the 2016 election. VPC is mailing voter registration forms to 1.4 million RAE members in 8 states. (You can read more about our mail program here.)
The chart below shows the huge number of unregistered members of the RAE—particularly unmarried women—and the opportunity to reshape the electorate in these eight states.
| Rising American Electorate | Unmarried Women | |||||||||
State
|
% of VEP
|
Registered
|
%
|
Unreg.
|
%
|
% of VEP
|
Registered
|
%
|
Unreg.
|
%
|
| Colorado | 49% | 1,149,895 | 62% | 695,784 | 38% | 22% | 546,725 | 66% | 283,499 | 34% |
| Florida | 58% | 4,818,782 | 60% | 3,269,845 | 40% | 26% | 2,184,986 | 60% | 1,452,963 | 40% |
| Iowa | 45% | 601,659 | 59% | 413,038 | 41% | 23% | 325,929 | 62% | 198,167 | 38% |
| North Carolina | 56% | 2,439,168 | 63% | 1,406,290 | 37% | 26% | 1,147,794 | 64% | 656,032 | 36% |
| Nevada | 62% | 616,901 | 53% | 543,057 | 47% | 26% | 266,875 | 55% | 215,404 | 45% |
| Pennsylvania | 47% | 2,531,540 | 57% | 1,947,017 | 43% | 24% | 1,404,064 | 61% | 892,563 | 39% |
| Virginia | 56% | 1,941,775 | 59% | 1,328,439 | 41% | 24% | 831,891 | 59% | 568,104 | 41% |
| Wisconsin | 45% | 1,137,583 | 60% | 759,954 | 40% | 24% | 637,094 | 63% | 370,210 | 37% |
(VEP: Vote-Eligible Population)
Data Source: Current Population Survey: Voting and Registration Supplement, 2014. U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.
In the 2016 election, for the first time ever, unmarried women will make up the majority of voting-eligible women.
That’s just one of the many data points in “Gearing Up for 2016: How Population and Electoral Trends Among the RAE Inform the 2016 Cycle,” the newest report from The Voter Participation Center and Lake Research Partners.
The trend is impossible to ignore: the Rising American Electorate continues to increase in numbers and proportion of the total voting-eligible population, making their needs and concerns more and more difficult for elected officials, candidates, and political parties to ignore.
Update September 25, 2015: This report has been updated with new Census 2014 data.
Today is National Voter Registration Day, and perhaps the most important National Voter Registration Day ever because of the decisive role the Rising American Electorate (RAE)—unmarried women, people of color, and millennials—will have in the 2016 election.
In 2016, the RAE will make up 57% of Americans eligible to vote and they’re poised to make up the majority of the electorate. That’s why many now call them the New American Majority. But that can only happen if they’re registered to vote—and as this map we posted a few weeks ago makes clear, there are a lot of states where huge numbers of the RAE aren’t registered to vote, including in states key to the outcome of the 2016 presidential election:
Data Source: Current Population Survey: Voting and Registration Supplement, 2014. U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
That’s why our ongoing mail and online registration programs, which focus on the Rising American Electorate, are such an important part of our mission—because we believe our nation is stronger when every eligible American can cast a ballot and make their voice heard on Election Day.
And if you’re not registered to vote yet, make sure you’re registered!
Highlights from the most recent U.S. Census figures illustrate the decisive role unmarried women and the rest of the Rising American Electorate will play in the 2016 elections.
The video of our September 16 webinar features VPC president and founder Page Gardner and nationally-prominent pollster Celinda Lake, discussing how population and electoral trends among theRising American Electorate in 2014 inform the 2016 cycle .
To view the slide deck from the webinar, click here (PDF).
By November 2016, for the first time more unmarried women than married women will be eligible to vote—meaning they could decide the election.
But only if they register and vote—and as of 2014, 22.4 million unmarried women (almost 40%) weren’t registered, including almost 10 million unmarried women under the age of 30.
Here’s a race/ethnicity and age breakdown of unregistered unmarried women:
| Group | # Unregistered |
| Unmarried White Women | 13,145,524 |
| Unmarried African-American Women | 3,913,991 |
| Unmarried Latinas | 3,722,100 |
| Unmarried Women 18-30 | 9,875,219 |
| Unmarried Women 30-50 | 5,405,848 |
| Unmarried Women 50+ | 7,155,603 |
As Pennsylvania becomes the 23rd state to allow online voter registration (OVR) our friends at Project Vote have prepared an updated list, not only of those states that currently offer OVR, but states where OVR is approved, but not yet implemented.
From ProjectVote.org:
Over the past several years, online registration has made steady progress in reforming voter registration in the states. At this writing, 29 states and the District of Columbia have passed legislation or made administrative changes to enable individuals to register to vote completely electronically.
Does your state offer OVR yet? Find out in Project Vote’s report (PDF).
In our last post, we focused on the massive numbers of unmarried women who are not registered to vote in key 2016 states. But unmarried women are just one part of the Rising American Electorate (RAE), which also includes people of color and Millennials. Together they make up well over the majority—close to 57 percent—of the U.S. population eligible to vote, but in the 2014 general election they only cast 44% of the votes.
As this interactive map makes very clear, if even a small percentage of unregistered RAE voters register and vote in 2016, it would have an enormous impact on national, state and local elections.
Data Source: Current Population Survey: Voting and Registration Supplement, 2014. U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census
