Gearing Up for 2016

September 25, 2015

2016 Election

In the 2016 election, for the first time ever, unmarried women will make up the majority of voting-eligible women.

That’s just one of the many data points in “Gearing Up for 2016: How Population and Electoral Trends Among the RAE Inform the 2016 Cycle,” the newest report from The Voter Participation Center and Lake Research Partners.

The trend is impossible to ignore: the Rising American Electorate continues to increase in numbers and proportion of the total voting-eligible population, making their needs and concerns more and more difficult for elected officials, candidates, and political parties to ignore.

Update September 25, 2015: This report has been updated with new Census 2014 data.

Downloads

Gearing Up for 2016: How Population and Electoral Trends Among the RAE Inform the 2016 Cycle (September 2015) (PDF)

A report about the Rising American Electorate and their potential impact on the 2016 election, based on census and survey data.

Associated Posts

Significant Digits: 40 Percent

538 highlights Rebecca Traister's story on how important unmarried women will be this cycle: Their numbers are growing, bringing “massive social and political implications.” In 2012, unmarried women were 23 percent of the electorate, and for the first time it’s expected that...

RAE Spotlight: African-American Voters

During Black History Month, we thought it would be a good time to take a deeper look at a key segment of the Rising American Electorate (RAE)—African-American voters. Nine out of ten African-Americans voted for Barack Obama in 20121,...

Voter Registration by Snail Mail?! Yes, Snail Mail!

We have to admit it: In an age of Facebook, online forms, and email, "snail mail" is a little old-school. But when you're talking about voter registration, mail is what works with the Rising American Electorate (unmarried women, people of...

Unmarried Women: An Electoral Profile

Unmarried women, people of color and millennials (age 18-35) now make up the majority (56.7 percent) of the U.S. population. Unmarried women make up one of the largest shares of this Rising American Electorate (RAE). Almost one of...

The Rising American Electorate: A Population on the Move

The Rising American Electorate (RAE) -- unmarried women, people of color and young people 18-35 (Millennials) - are highly mobile. Four in ten RAE members moved between the 2008 and 2012 presidential elections and lost their registration status.

How the Rising American Electorate Register and Vote

About a third of the Rising American Electorate (RAE) - unmarried women, people of color, young voters 18-35 (Millennials) -- are not registered to vote. Convenience of registration matters: The RAE is most likely to register...

The Rising American Electorate: A Profile

The fast-growing Rising American Electorate (RAE) - unmarried women, people of color and young people 18-35 (Millennials) -- now account for more than half (56.7 percent) of all eligible voters in the United States. All of...

Unmarried Women: A Demographic and Economic Profile

Unmarried Women and the Rising American Electorate: A Deeper Dive An in-depth demographic, economic and political look at unmarried women and the Rising American Electorate from Lake Research Partners. Unmarried Women: A Demographic and Economic Profile Unmarried Women:...

What We're Reading

U.S. Census: Unmarried and Single Americans Week

To commemorate Unmarried and Single Americans Week (September 17-23), the U.S. Census has produced a “Facts for Features” profile (PDF) of 2016 census data about unmarried Americans. Here are some of the highlights:

There are 110.6 unmarried people 18 or older in America, making up 45.2% of the U.S. adult population.
35.4 million Americans lived alone in 2016, representing 28.1% of all US households — up from 17.1% in 1970.
Despite unmarried people being 45.2% of the U.S. adult population, only 39.6% of voters in the 2016 presidential election were unmarried.

Read the rest of the U.S. Census Bureau’s “Facts for Features” profile (PDF) on unmarried Americans.

Millennials to pass baby boomers as largest voter-eligible age group, and what it means

For the first time, millennials next year will pass baby boomers as the largest generation of Americans eligible to vote.

By Ronald Brownstein, CNN Senior Political Analyst

July 25, 2017

(CNN)In 2018, the American electorate will cross a historic threshold that could reshape the political balance of power-or leave Democrats fuming in frustration at continued Republican dominance of Washington.

For the first time, millennials next year will pass baby boomers as the largest generation of Americans eligible to vote, according to the well-respected demographic forecasts from the States of Change project at the Center for American Progress, a liberal advocacy group. That transition will end a remarkable four decades of dominance for the baby boomers, who have been the largest generation of eligible voters since 1978, when they surpassed what’s been popularly referred to as the Greatest Generation (or G.I. Generation) raised during the Depression. Read more here.

How Votes Have Shifted: Changes in Partisan Performance 2000-2016

Demographic change is slowly, but inevitably, moving Western states to the left.

By Reid Wilson

The 11th story in The Hill’s Changing America series, in which they investigate the demographic and economic trends shaping the nation’s politics. Nevada’s booming growth underscores the two trends working most in Democrats’ favor: the rising power of cities that are acting more reliably liberal, and the expanding influence of Hispanic-Americans who are becoming the nation’s largest minority community. Read more here.