The Atlantic: The 2016 Electorate is Voting Just as Predicted
At The Atlantic, Ronald Brownstein and Leah Askarinam have crunched the numbers on 22 state exit polls to find that presidential primary candidates’ demographic appeals have remained remarkably consistent since the voting began in February. In other words: throughout this contest, a state’s demographic makeup—race, gender, age, and socioeconomic status—has been the major factor in determining which of the Republican and Democratic primary candidates will win there.
Read the article.
2016 Primary Spotlight: April 26 Primaries (CT, DE, MD, PA, RI)
The five presidential primaries next Tuesday are all on the east coast—Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania, and Rhode Island. These primaries could mark the end of Sen. Bernie Sanders’s presidential campaign and move the Republicans closer to a contested convention.
Here’s what’s at stake:
- Connecticut: 70 Democratic delegates (awarded proportionally); 28 Republican (awarded proportionallyif no candidate gets >50%, winner-take-all if one candidate does)
The Rising American Electorate—unmarried women, people of color, and millennials—make up the majority of voters in Maryland (56%) and Delaware (56%) and close to half the electorate in the other primary states (49% in Connecticut, 47% in Pennsylvania, and 48% in Rhode Island).
Forty percent of the eligible voters in Maryland are people of color (40%), the largest share of any state voting on Tuesday. 30% of MD’s eligible voters are African Americans—and the participation of these voters could decide the tightly-contested Democratic primary race for the open U.S. Senate seat between Representatives Chris Van Hollen and Donna Edwards. According to Washington Post polling, voters are split along racial lines between Van Hollen, a white man, and Edwards, an African-American woman. The Post poll shows that Edwards has a 51-point lead among African-American women.
The VPC has prepared in-depth profiles on unmarried women in each of Tuesday’s five primary states:
Connecticut
Delaware
Maryland
Pennsylvania
Rhode Island
2016 Primary Spotlight: New York
For the first time in decades, both the Democratic and Republican primaries in New York on Tuesday, April 19 will be consequential. The nominees are usually already decided this late into the primary calendar. But candidates from both parties have a lot riding the Tuesday’s outcome of their closed primary elections. (Independents cannot vote in the New York primaries.)
New York is the second most delegate-rich state for Democrats with a mix of 291 pledged, at-large and uncommitted delegates up for grabs. On the Republican side, New York has the fourth-highest number of delegates, with 95 delegates at stake.
The Rising American Electorate—unmarried women, people of color, and millennials—could have a significant effect on the outcome in New York, where they make up 61% of the eligible voters in the state. (Nationally, the RAE accounts for 57% of eligible voters.) People of color also make up a higher portion of eligible voters in New York (34%) than they do nationally (30%) and unmarried women are also a larger share of eligible voters in New York: 29% versus 26% nationally.
Equal Pay Day 2016: Unmarried Women, Race, and the #WageGap
Today is Equal Pay Day: a date that symbolizes how far into 2016 the average woman would have to work just to make as much money as the average man made in 2015. Because the average woman makes 80¢ for every $1 a man makes, she’d have to work three extra months—all the way through March 2016—just to make as much as the average man made in 2015.
As we pointed out in yesterday’s post, while the wage gap for women overall is awful, the wage gap for unmarried women is even worse; the average unmarried woman makes only 60¢ for every $1 a man makes.
But unmarried women of color are the ones who suffer the most from the wage gap: For every $1 the average man makes, an unmarried African-American woman makes 52¢, an unmarried Latina makes 48¢, and an unmarried Native American woman makes only 47¢. Those numbers look even worse when we consider how long the average woman in each of those groups would have to work just to make the same amount of money the average man made in 2015:
That’s just depressing.
And it’s not going to change until policymakers at the state and federal level acknowledge that there’s a problem, and take action to solve it. That’s why efforts like Equal Pay Day are so important, to put pressure on officials to do something about the wage gap.
Please do your part and spread the word.
Read the full memo from the Voter Participation Center and Lake Research Partners about the current wage gap and presidential candidates’ response to the wage gap: Equal Pay Day for Unmarried Women (PDF)
Equal Pay Day 2016: Unmarried Women and the #WageGap by State
Tomorrow, April 12, is Equal Pay Day: a date that symbolizes how far into 2016 the average woman would have to work just to make as much money as the average man made in 2015. Women make, on average, 80¢ for every $1 a man makes—a gap that adds up over time, costing the average woman $430,480 in lost income over a 40-year career.
But as terrible as that is, it’s even worse for unmarried women. The average unmarried woman makes only 60¢ for every $1 a man makes.
To find out what the wage gap for unmarried women is in your state, check out this interactive map:
The Wage Gap for Unmarried Women
Pay Gap by State
Yes, the wage gap for women, unmarried women, and unmarried women of color is real—and it’s a problem that won’t go away unless we do something. We need to demand that our policymakers and legislators at the state and federal level take action to end the wage gap.
Read the full memo from the Voter Participation Center and Lake Research Partners about the current wage gap and presidential candidates’ response to the wage gap: Equal Pay Day for Unmarried Women (PDF)
Bloomberg: The Definitely Messy, Probably Solvable Reasons Americans Don't Vote
Here’s a great data visualization from Bloomberg Politics about the things that are keeping people from voting—including problems with access to the polls, voter registration, vote suppression, and the lack of absentee options. In 2012, only 57% of voting-age Americans cast a ballot… find out how many lost voters there are in your state.
2016 Primary Spotlight: Wisconsin
The Wisconsin primaries, which will be held on April 5, mark the first presidential primary contests of April 2016. For the Democrats, 86 pledged delegates are at stake. They will be allocated proportionally.
For the Republicans, 42 pledged delegates are up for grabs. They will be allocated on a winner-take-all basis, meaning whichever candidate receives the most votes will take home all 42 of Wisconsin’s pledged delegates.
One of the key trends we have been tracking is turnout. Young people have been unusually engaged this year in both the Democratic and the Republican primaries. According to analysis by the Center for Information and Research on Civic Learning and Engagement at Tufts University, Donald Trump drew more young voters than his Republican rivals but he received slightly fewer votes from young people than former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. Senator Bernie Sanders, the overwhelming favorite of millennials, has received more votes from the young than Mr. Trump and Sec. Clinton combined. In Wisconsin, millennials make up about a quarter of the electorate.
Unmarried women, a key constituency this election, make up about 24 percent of the eligible voters in WI. A new poll from the Women’s Voices Women Vote Action Fund (our sister organization) shows unmarried women have an increased interest in the election. For more information about unmarried women in Wisconsin, read our Wisconsin report.
2016 Primary Spotlight: Arizona, Idaho, and Utah
The race is coming down to the wire for the Republicans, with Tuesday’s contests in Arizona, Idaho and Utah the last for GOP contenders until Wisconsin votes on April 5.
Here’s where the delegate counts sit as the March 22 primaries and caucuses approach:
- Donald Trump currently has 678 delegates, 559 short of the number needed for the nomination. His closest rival, Sen. Ted Cruz (Texas), has 423 delegates, and Gov. John Kasich (Ohio) has 143. (Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida, who has suspended his campaign, also has 164 delegates.)
Here’s what at stake on Tuesday, March 22:
- Arizona – 58 Republican delegates (winner-take-all), 85 Democratic
- Idaho Democratic caucus – 27 delegates
- Utah – 40 Republican delegates*, 37 Democratic
Demographically, the most interesting state in play on Tuesday is Arizona, where Latinos now make up almost one-third (31 percent) of the state’s population and 26% of its eligible voters. Yet no Democrat has won a statewide election in Arizona since 2004, and voters continue to register as Republicans faster than as Democrats or even independents.
According to Francisco Heredia of Mi Familia Vota, which tries to increase Latino voting, the principal political struggle is between the state’s two fasting-growing populations: young Latinos and older people in Arizona’s retirement communities.
All told in Arizona, the Rising American Electorate—unmarried women, people of color and millennials—make up the overwhelming majority (60%) of the eligible voters in the state.
Learn more about unmarried women in Arizona, Idaho and Utah.
* The Utah GOP primary is winner-take-all if a candidate gets over 50% of the vote, but proportional otherwise.
Statistical Profile of Unmarried Women: South Dakota
Our research team has compiled available data from the US Census Bureau, the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and other sources to put together this statistical profile of the demographic and economic circumstances facing unmarried women in the state of South Dakota.
Downloads
Statistical Profile of Unmarried Women: New Jersey
Our research team has compiled available data from the US Census Bureau, the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and other sources to put together this statistical profile of the demographic and economic circumstances facing unmarried women in the state of New Jersey.
