Comparing the Voting Electorate in 2012-2016 and Predicting 2018 Drop-Off
As part of our ongoing efforts to understand the voting patterns of the Rising American Electorate, we’ve worked with Lake Research Partners to produce this report, which catalogues the changes in voting turnout for the Rising American Electorate between 2012 and 2016 – and makes projections for voter drop-off in 2018.
The projections are sobering and troubling to everyone who cares about increasing participation in our great democracy. Our prediction is that 40 million Americans who voted in 2016 won’t cast a ballot in the 2018 midterms — and to make matters worse, 2/3 of those drop-off voters will be members of the Rising American Electorate. The RAE dropoff is projected to be particularly pronounced in key 2018 battleground states, such as Arizona, Nevada, Florida, and Ohio:
Add in the effects of ongoing vote suppression efforts and the implication is clear: Democracy is facing a headwind in 2018. We need to double down on voter registration, mobilization and turnout efforts, and fighting for voting rights in order to make sure that every American has the opportunity to raise their voice at the ballot box.
Unmarried Women: Growing in Numbers and the Power to Decide 2016 Elections
There are more than 58 million single women eligible to vote this November. For the first time ever, there are more single women than married women eligible to vote, and their numbers continue to grow nationally and in key states. And as the new poll of nine battleground states conducted for Women’s Voices Women Vote Action Fund shows, single women could determine the outcome of the presidential election and U.S. Senate races down-ballot.
Chart: Rising American Electorate vs. Non-RAE Percent Change
This chart showing the growth of the Rising American Electorate – unmarried women, people of color, and Millennials – in key states between 2010 and 2016 demonstrates quite clearly how broadly and quickly the face of America is changing.
All information was provided by Lake Research Partners.
2016 Primary Spotlight: April 26 Primaries (CT, DE, MD, PA, RI)
The five presidential primaries next Tuesday are all on the east coast—Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania, and Rhode Island. These primaries could mark the end of Sen. Bernie Sanders’s presidential campaign and move the Republicans closer to a contested convention.
Here’s what’s at stake:
- Connecticut: 70 Democratic delegates (awarded proportionally); 28 Republican (awarded proportionallyif no candidate gets >50%, winner-take-all if one candidate does)
The Rising American Electorate—unmarried women, people of color, and millennials—make up the majority of voters in Maryland (56%) and Delaware (56%) and close to half the electorate in the other primary states (49% in Connecticut, 47% in Pennsylvania, and 48% in Rhode Island).
Forty percent of the eligible voters in Maryland are people of color (40%), the largest share of any state voting on Tuesday. 30% of MD’s eligible voters are African Americans—and the participation of these voters could decide the tightly-contested Democratic primary race for the open U.S. Senate seat between Representatives Chris Van Hollen and Donna Edwards. According to Washington Post polling, voters are split along racial lines between Van Hollen, a white man, and Edwards, an African-American woman. The Post poll shows that Edwards has a 51-point lead among African-American women.
The VPC has prepared in-depth profiles on unmarried women in each of Tuesday’s five primary states:
New Data for the New Year
Here’s an updated look at the median earnings, health insurance coverage and poverty rates for unmarried women in 16 states. These profiles provide detailed demographic and economic portraits of the growing number of increasingly politically-powerful single women.
Unmarried Women: The Key to Unlocking the New American Electorate
An astonishing number of single women aren’t yet registered to vote. If we help even a small percentage more of unmarried women register and vote, we’d likely see different results up and down the ballot in key 2016 states.
(Click on a state name in the table to view our demographic profile of unmarried women for that state.)
|State||Unmarried Women||% of Vote-Eligible Population||Registered to Vote||Not Registered to Vote|
|Colorado||830,224||22%||546,725 (66%)||283,499 (34%)|
|Florida||3,637,949||26%||2,184,986 (60%)||1,452,963 (40%)|
|Iowa||524,096||23%||325,929 (62%)||198,167 (38%)|
|Missouri||1,010,097||23%||665,390 (66%)||344,707 (34%)|
|Nevada||482,278||26%||266,875 (55%)||215,404 (45%)|
|New Hampshire||239,332||24%||146,705 (61%)||92,627 (39%)|
|North Carolina||1,803,826||26%||1,147,794 (64%)||656,032 (36%)|
|Ohio||2,171,933||26%||1,341,439 (62%)||830,495 (38%)|
|Pennsylvania||2,296,628||24%||1,404,064 (61%)||892,563 (39%)|
|Virginia||1,399,995||24%||831,891 (59%)||568,104 (41%)|
|Wisconsin||1,007,304||24%||637,094 (63%)||370,210 (37%)|
Data Source: Current Population Survey: Voting and Registration Supplement, 2014. U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.
Statistical Profile of Unmarried Women: Pennsylvania
Our research team has compiled available data from the US Census Bureau, the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and other sources to put together this statistical profile of the demographic and economic circumstances facing unmarried women in the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania.
Report updated May 2017