The 2016 presidential nominating contests could all come down to this Tuesday, March 15. Primary elections in five states could significantly winnow the race and give clearer shape to the general election.
The five states voting on March 15 will be:
For the GOP, the March 15 primaries include some winner-take-all states: Florida, Ohio, and possibly Missouri.* In most of the primaries this spring, delegates have been awarded proportionally, allowing several candidates to win delegates in a race.
So what does the Rising American Electorate—unmarried women, people of color, and millennials—look like in these make-or-break states? Remember that nationally, the RAE is the majority of eligible voters—almost 57%. And in 2016, for the first time in U.S. history, they’re poised to cast the majority of votes in an election.
Take a look at our breakdown of the RAE nationally and in each of the five March 15 states. As a reminder, a person can belong to more than one subgroup in the RAE—so an unmarried Latina millennial would show up as part of all three cohorts that make up the RAE.
|Rising American Electorate||Unmarried Women||People of Color||Millennials|
|U.S. Vote-Eligible Population||57%||26%||30%||26%|
* In the Missouri GOP primary, if one candidate gets over 50% of the vote, they will receive all of Missouri’s GOP delegates; if no candidate gets 50%, then the delegates will be allocated proportionally.
Here’s an updated look at the median earnings, health insurance coverage and poverty rates for unmarried women in 16 states. These profiles provide detailed demographic and economic portraits of the growing number of increasingly politically-powerful single women.
An astonishing number of single women aren’t yet registered to vote. If we help even a small percentage more of unmarried women register and vote, we’d likely see different results up and down the ballot in key 2016 states.
(Click on a state name in the table to view our demographic profile of unmarried women for that state.)
|State||Unmarried Women||% of Vote-Eligible Population||Registered to Vote||Not Registered to Vote|
|Colorado||830,224||22%||546,725 (66%)||283,499 (34%)|
|Florida||3,637,949||26%||2,184,986 (60%)||1,452,963 (40%)|
|Iowa||524,096||23%||325,929 (62%)||198,167 (38%)|
|Missouri||1,010,097||23%||665,390 (66%)||344,707 (34%)|
|Nevada||482,278||26%||266,875 (55%)||215,404 (45%)|
|New Hampshire||239,332||24%||146,705 (61%)||92,627 (39%)|
|North Carolina||1,803,826||26%||1,147,794 (64%)||656,032 (36%)|
|Ohio||2,171,933||26%||1,341,439 (62%)||830,495 (38%)|
|Pennsylvania||2,296,628||24%||1,404,064 (61%)||892,563 (39%)|
|Virginia||1,399,995||24%||831,891 (59%)||568,104 (41%)|
|Wisconsin||1,007,304||24%||637,094 (63%)||370,210 (37%)|
Data Source: Current Population Survey: Voting and Registration Supplement, 2014. U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.
Our research team has compiled available data from the US Census Bureau, the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and other sources to put together this statistical profile of the demographic and economic circumstances facing unmarried women in the state of Missouri.
Report updated August 2016