2016 Primary Spotlight: Arizona, Idaho, and Utah
The race is coming down to the wire for the Republicans, with Tuesday’s contests in Arizona, Idaho and Utah the last for GOP contenders until Wisconsin votes on April 5.
Here’s where the delegate counts sit as the March 22 primaries and caucuses approach:
- Donald Trump currently has 678 delegates, 559 short of the number needed for the nomination. His closest rival, Sen. Ted Cruz (Texas), has 423 delegates, and Gov. John Kasich (Ohio) has 143. (Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida, who has suspended his campaign, also has 164 delegates.)
Here’s what at stake on Tuesday, March 22:
- Arizona – 58 Republican delegates (winner-take-all), 85 Democratic
- Idaho Democratic caucus – 27 delegates
- Utah – 40 Republican delegates*, 37 Democratic
Demographically, the most interesting state in play on Tuesday is Arizona, where Latinos now make up almost one-third (31 percent) of the state’s population and 26% of its eligible voters. Yet no Democrat has won a statewide election in Arizona since 2004, and voters continue to register as Republicans faster than as Democrats or even independents.
According to Francisco Heredia of Mi Familia Vota, which tries to increase Latino voting, the principal political struggle is between the state’s two fasting-growing populations: young Latinos and older people in Arizona’s retirement communities.
All told in Arizona, the Rising American Electorate—unmarried women, people of color and millennials—make up the overwhelming majority (60%) of the eligible voters in the state.
Learn more about unmarried women in Arizona, Idaho and Utah.
* The Utah GOP primary is winner-take-all if a candidate gets over 50% of the vote, but proportional otherwise.
Statistical Profile of Unmarried Women: South Dakota
Our research team has compiled available data from the US Census Bureau, the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and other sources to put together this statistical profile of the demographic and economic circumstances facing unmarried women in the state of South Dakota.
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Statistical Profile of Unmarried Women: New Jersey
Our research team has compiled available data from the US Census Bureau, the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and other sources to put together this statistical profile of the demographic and economic circumstances facing unmarried women in the state of New Jersey.
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Statistical Profile of Unmarried Women: New Mexico
Our research team has compiled available data from the US Census Bureau, the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and other sources to put together this statistical profile of the demographic and economic circumstances facing unmarried women in the state of New Mexico.
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Statistical Profile of Unmarried Women: Montana
Our research team has compiled available data from the US Census Bureau, the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and other sources to put together this statistical profile of the demographic and economic circumstances facing unmarried women in the state of Montana.
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2016 Primary Spotlight: March 15
The 2016 presidential nominating contests could all come down to this Tuesday, March 15. Primary elections in five states could significantly winnow the race and give clearer shape to the general election.
The five states voting on March 15 will be:
For the GOP, the March 15 primaries include some winner-take-all states: Florida, Ohio, and possibly Missouri.* In most of the primaries this spring, delegates have been awarded proportionally, allowing several candidates to win delegates in a race.
So what does the Rising American Electorate—unmarried women, people of color, and millennials—look like in these make-or-break states? Remember that nationally, the RAE is the majority of eligible voters—almost 57%. And in 2016, for the first time in U.S. history, they’re poised to cast the majority of votes in an election.
Take a look at our breakdown of the RAE nationally and in each of the five March 15 states. As a reminder, a person can belong to more than one subgroup in the RAE—so an unmarried Latina millennial would show up as part of all three cohorts that make up the RAE.
| Rising American Electorate | Unmarried Women | People of Color | Millennials | |
| U.S. Vote-Eligible Population | 57% | 26% | 30% | 26% |
| Florida | 58% | 26% | 36% | 21% |
| Illinois | 58% | 28% | 30% | 27% |
| Missouri | 46% | 23% | 15% | 26% |
| North Carolina | 56% | 26% | 29% | 26% |
| Ohio | 48% | 26% | 16% | 21% |
* In the Missouri GOP primary, if one candidate gets over 50% of the vote, they will receive all of Missouri’s GOP delegates; if no candidate gets 50%, then the delegates will be allocated proportionally.
2016 Primary Spotlight: Michigan, the Rising American Electorate, and Unmarried Millennial Women
On March 8, Democrats and Republicans will vote in Michigan and Mississippi; additionally, Republicans will vote in Idaho and caucus in Hawaii. (Democrats in Idaho and Hawaii will caucus on March 22 and March 26, respectively.)
Michigan is the big prize in terms of delegates: Michigan Democrats will send 147 delegates to Philadelphia and the GOP will send 59 to Cleveland. Mississippi has 41 Democratic and 40 Republican delegates, Idaho Republicans have 32 delegates, and Hawaii Republicans have 19 delegates.
In Michigan, the Rising American Electorate—unmarried women, people of color, and millennials—make up half of all the eligible voters in the state. Unmarried women are 26% of Michigan’s vote-eligible population, millennials are 24%, and people of color are 21%.
So we thought it would be interesting to look more closely at where millennials overlap with unmarried women and people of color—since millennials are one of the most highly-contested demographic groups on the Democratic side.
Almost four in ten millennials in Michigan (38.1%) are unmarried women. 15.8% of unmarried millennial women in Michigan are African-American, and 6.7% of unmarried millennial women in Michigan are Latino.
Learn more about unmarried women in the March 8 primary states:
Michigan
Mississippi
Idaho
Hawaii
Statistical Profile of Unmarried Women: Washington
Our research team has compiled available data from the US Census Bureau, the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and other sources to put together this statistical profile of the demographic and economic circumstances facing unmarried women in the state of Washington.
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Statistical Profile of Unmarried Women: Utah
Our research team has compiled available data from the US Census Bureau, the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and other sources to put together this statistical profile of the demographic and economic circumstances facing unmarried women in the state of Utah.
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Statistical Profile of Unmarried Women: District of Columbia
Our research team has compiled available data from the US Census Bureau, the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and other sources to put together this statistical profile of the demographic and economic circumstances facing unmarried women in the District of Columbia.
