2016 Primary Spotlight: South Carolina and Nevada

February 8, 2016

2016 Election

The voices of more racially-diverse Presidential voters will be heard starting Feb. 20, 23, and 27 with the South Carolina primaries and Nevada caucuses. For the first time this primary season, the Rising American Electorate (RAE)—the population of unmarried women, people of color, and millennials—in South Carolina and Nevada make up the overwhelming majority of eligible voters, just as they do nationally.

The RAE makes up close to 57 (56.7%) percent of eligible voters in U.S. In Iowa, the RAE made up 45 percent of eligible voters and just 41 percent in New Hampshire. But in South Carolina, the RAE makes up 57 percent of eligible voters in the state; they make up 62 percent in Nevada.

South Carolina

The South Carolina primaries are the “first in the South” primaries for both parties. The Republican primary will be held on February 20; the Democrats will vote on February 27. Historically, these key early primaries have helped narrow the field of both Democratic and Republican contenders. The state does not have registration by party. Voters may vote in either party’s primary, but not in both.

South Carolina’s primary is the first contest in which a large percentage of the electorate will be African American. People of color make up 31 percent of the eligible voters in South Carolina. 65 percent of those eligible voters are registered to vote; 35 percent are not.

Unmarried women in South Carolina make up 27 percent of the eligible voters:

Women make up more than half of South Carolina’s population (53%)
There are more unmarried women (51.3%) than married women (48.7%) in the state.
5 percent of unmarried women in South Carolina are African-American.
64 percent of unmarried women are registered to vote.

A detailed demographic analysis from the Voter Participation Data Center shows that unmarried women have a large and vital economic stake in the outcome of the presidential election:

Unmarried women have the highest unemployment rate in the state: 9.9%. They are more than two and a half times more likely to be unemployed than married women (3.7%).
Unmarried women earn less than married women. Married women in South Carolina earn close to what a man earns (93.8%); unmarried women lag behind making 81.4 percent of what a man earns in the Palmetto State.
More than a quarter of unmarried women in South Carolina live in poverty and unmarried women are more than 3 times as likely to live in poverty (25.8%) than married women (8.0%).
About six in ten of all minimum wage or below-minimum wage workers in South Carolina are women.

Nevada

Nevada’s Democratic caucus is scheduled for February 20; the GOP caucus is set for February 23. Nevada is the first state in the West to vote, the first primarily labor-based state to vote, and the first state with a significant Hispanic population to vote. Close to one in five (18.9%) of Nevada’s eligible voters is Hispanic. Fifty-four percent of eligible Hispanic voters in Nevada are registered to vote; 46 percent are not.

Anyone who will be 18 years old at the time of the Nov. 8 general election is eligible to participate in the caucuses, including high school students. The caucus is a partisan process; people who want to participate must be registered as a member of the party. Democrats have same-day registration while Republicans require voters to register by Feb. 13.

Unmarried women make up 26 percent of Nevada’s eligible voters.

There are close to equal numbers of men and women in Nevada. Women make up 50.3% of Nevada’s population; men make up 49.7%.
There are more unmarried women (51.6%) than married women (48.4%) in the state.
More than a quarter of Hispanics are unmarried women (25.6%).
55 percent of unmarried women are registered to vote.

An economic profile from the Voter Participation Data Center makes it clear unmarried women have a lot riding on the outcome of the presidential election:

Unmarried women have the highest unemployment rate in the state (11.5%). They are more than four times more likely to be unemployed than married women (2.6%)
Unmarried women earn less than married women. Married women in Nevada earn 82.5% of what a man earns; unmarried women make 76.8% of what a man earns in the Palmetto State.
More than a fifth of unmarried women in Nevada live in poverty and unmarried women are more than almost 3 times as likely to live in poverty (21.3%) than married women (7.7%).

Next: Super Tuesday, March 1

What We're Reading

U.S. Census: Unmarried and Single Americans Week

To commemorate Unmarried and Single Americans Week (September 17-23), the U.S. Census has produced a “Facts for Features” profile (PDF) of 2016 census data about unmarried Americans. Here are some of the highlights:

There are 110.6 unmarried people 18 or older in America, making up 45.2% of the U.S. adult population.
35.4 million Americans lived alone in 2016, representing 28.1% of all US households — up from 17.1% in 1970.
Despite unmarried people being 45.2% of the U.S. adult population, only 39.6% of voters in the 2016 presidential election were unmarried.

Read the rest of the U.S. Census Bureau’s “Facts for Features” profile (PDF) on unmarried Americans.

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For the first time, millennials next year will pass baby boomers as the largest generation of Americans eligible to vote, according to the well-respected demographic forecasts from the States of Change project at the Center for American Progress, a liberal advocacy group. That transition will end a remarkable four decades of dominance for the baby boomers, who have been the largest generation of eligible voters since 1978, when they surpassed what’s been popularly referred to as the Greatest Generation (or G.I. Generation) raised during the Depression. Read more here.

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