As part of our ongoing efforts to understand the voting patterns of the Rising American Electorate, we’ve worked with Lake Research Partners to produce this report, which catalogues the changes in voting turnout for the Rising American Electorate between 2012 and 2016 – and makes projections for voter drop-off in 2018.
The projections are sobering and troubling to everyone who cares about increasing participation in our great democracy. Our prediction is that 40 million Americans who voted in 2016 won’t cast a ballot in the 2018 midterms — and to make matters worse, 2/3 of those drop-off voters will be members of the Rising American Electorate. The RAE dropoff is projected to be particularly pronounced in key 2018 battleground states, such as Arizona, Nevada, Florida, and Ohio:
Add in the effects of ongoing vote suppression efforts and the implication is clear: Democracy is facing a headwind in 2018. We need to double down on voter registration, mobilization and turnout efforts, and fighting for voting rights in order to make sure that every American has the opportunity to raise their voice at the ballot box.
There are more than 58 million single women eligible to vote this November. For the first time ever, there are more single women than married women eligible to vote, and their numbers continue to grow nationally and in key states. And as the new poll of nine battleground states conducted for Women’s Voices Women Vote Action Fund shows, single women could determine the outcome of the presidential election and U.S. Senate races down-ballot.
This chart showing the growth of the Rising American Electorate – unmarried women, people of color, and Millennials – in key states between 2010 and 2016 demonstrates quite clearly how broadly and quickly the face of America is changing.
All information was provided by Lake Research Partners.
The Wisconsin primaries, which will be held on April 5, mark the first presidential primary contests of April 2016. For the Democrats, 86 pledged delegates are at stake. They will be allocated proportionally.
For the Republicans, 42 pledged delegates are up for grabs. They will be allocated on a winner-take-all basis, meaning whichever candidate receives the most votes will take home all 42 of Wisconsin’s pledged delegates.
One of the key trends we have been tracking is turnout. Young people have been unusually engaged this year in both the Democratic and the Republican primaries. According to analysis by the Center for Information and Research on Civic Learning and Engagement at Tufts University, Donald Trump drew more young voters than his Republican rivals but he received slightly fewer votes from young people than former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. Senator Bernie Sanders, the overwhelming favorite of millennials, has received more votes from the young than Mr. Trump and Sec. Clinton combined. In Wisconsin, millennials make up about a quarter of the electorate.
Unmarried women, a key constituency this election, make up about 24 percent of the eligible voters in WI. A new poll from the Women’s Voices Women Vote Action Fund (our sister organization) shows unmarried women have an increased interest in the election. For more information about unmarried women in Wisconsin, read our Wisconsin report.
Here’s an updated look at the median earnings, health insurance coverage and poverty rates for unmarried women in 16 states. These profiles provide detailed demographic and economic portraits of the growing number of increasingly politically-powerful single women.
An astonishing number of single women aren’t yet registered to vote. If we help even a small percentage more of unmarried women register and vote, we’d likely see different results up and down the ballot in key 2016 states.
(Click on a state name in the table to view our demographic profile of unmarried women for that state.)
|State||Unmarried Women||% of Vote-Eligible Population||Registered to Vote||Not Registered to Vote|
|Colorado||830,224||22%||546,725 (66%)||283,499 (34%)|
|Florida||3,637,949||26%||2,184,986 (60%)||1,452,963 (40%)|
|Iowa||524,096||23%||325,929 (62%)||198,167 (38%)|
|Missouri||1,010,097||23%||665,390 (66%)||344,707 (34%)|
|Nevada||482,278||26%||266,875 (55%)||215,404 (45%)|
|New Hampshire||239,332||24%||146,705 (61%)||92,627 (39%)|
|North Carolina||1,803,826||26%||1,147,794 (64%)||656,032 (36%)|
|Ohio||2,171,933||26%||1,341,439 (62%)||830,495 (38%)|
|Pennsylvania||2,296,628||24%||1,404,064 (61%)||892,563 (39%)|
|Virginia||1,399,995||24%||831,891 (59%)||568,104 (41%)|
|Wisconsin||1,007,304||24%||637,094 (63%)||370,210 (37%)|
Data Source: Current Population Survey: Voting and Registration Supplement, 2014. U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.
Our research team has compiled available data from the US Census Bureau, the Bureau of Labor Statistics, and other sources to put together this statistical profile of the demographic and economic circumstances facing unmarried women in the state of Wisconsin.
Report updated August 2016