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Data for Idaho
March 21, 2016

2016 Primary Spotlight: Arizona, Idaho, and Utah

The race is coming down to the wire for the Republicans, with Tuesday’s contests in Arizona, Idaho and Utah the last for GOP contenders until Wisconsin votes on April 5.

Here’s where the delegate counts sit as the March 22 primaries and caucuses approach:

  • Donald Trump currently has 678 delegates, 559 short of the number needed for the nomination. His closest rival, Sen. Ted Cruz (Texas), has 423 delegates, and Gov. John Kasich (Ohio) has 143. (Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida, who has suspended his campaign, also has 164 delegates.)
  • About 60 percent of all Republican delegates have been awarded so far, with Trump winning 47 percent of those. If that pace continues, Trump could end up about 100 delegates short of the 1,237 needed at the convention. To win the nomination outright, Trump needs to win more than 60 percent of the remaining delegates.
  • Among Democrats, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has 1,614 delegates (1,147 pledged delegates and 423 superdelegates) compared to 856 for Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont (830 pledged delegates and 26 superdelegates). In order to win the Democratic nomination, a candidate must have 2,382 total delegates; 2,026 pledged delegates are needed to win a majority of pledged delegates.
  • Here’s what at stake on Tuesday, March 22:

    • Arizona – 58 Republican delegates (winner-take-all), 85 Democratic
    • Idaho Democratic caucus – 27 delegates
    • Utah – 40 Republican delegates*, 37 Democratic

    Demographically, the most interesting state in play on Tuesday is Arizona, where Latinos now make up almost one-third (31 percent) of the state’s population and 26% of its eligible voters. Yet no Democrat has won a statewide election in Arizona since 2004, and voters continue to register as Republicans faster than as Democrats or even independents.

    According to Francisco Heredia of Mi Familia Vota, which tries to increase Latino voting, the principal political struggle is between the state’s two fasting-growing populations: young Latinos and older people in Arizona’s retirement communities.

    All told in Arizona, the Rising American Electorate—unmarried women, people of color and millennials—make up the overwhelming majority (60%) of the eligible voters in the state.

    Learn more about unmarried women in Arizona, Idaho and Utah.

    * The Utah GOP primary is winner-take-all if a candidate gets over 50% of the vote, but proportional otherwise.

    March 7, 2016

    2016 Primary Spotlight: Michigan, the Rising American Electorate, and Unmarried Millennial Women

    On March 8, Democrats and Republicans will vote in Michigan and Mississippi; additionally, Republicans will vote in Idaho and caucus in Hawaii. (Democrats in Idaho and Hawaii will caucus on March 22 and March 26, respectively.)

    Michigan is the big prize in terms of delegates: Michigan Democrats will send 147 delegates to Philadelphia and the GOP will send 59 to Cleveland. Mississippi has 41 Democratic and 40 Republican delegates, Idaho Republicans have 32 delegates, and Hawaii Republicans have 19 delegates.

    In Michigan, the Rising American Electorate—unmarried women, people of color, and millennials—make up half of all the eligible voters in the state. Unmarried women are 26% of Michigan’s vote-eligible population, millennials are 24%, and people of color are 21%.

    So we thought it would be interesting to look more closely at where millennials overlap with unmarried women and people of color—since millennials are one of the most highly-contested demographic groups on the Democratic side.

    Almost four in ten millennials in Michigan (38.1%) are unmarried women. 15.8% of unmarried millennial women in Michigan are African-American, and 6.7% of unmarried millennial women in Michigan are Latino.

    Learn more about unmarried women in the March 8 primary states: