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2016 Primary Spotlight: March 15

March 11, 2016

The 2016 presidential nominating contests could all come down to this Tuesday, March 15. Primary elections in five states could significantly winnow the race and give clearer shape to the general election.

The five states voting on March 15 will be:

  • Florida: 246 Democratic delegates, 99 Republican
  • Illinois: 182 Democratic delegates, 69 Republican
  • Missouri: 84 Democratic delegates, 52 Republican
  • North Carolina: 121 Democratic delegates, 72 Republican
  • Ohio: 159 Democratic delegates, 66 Republican

For the GOP, the March 15 primaries include some winner-take-all states: Florida, Ohio, and possibly Missouri.* In most of the primaries this spring, delegates have been awarded proportionally, allowing several candidates to win delegates in a race.

So what does the Rising American Electorate—unmarried women, people of color, and millennials—look like in these make-or-break states? Remember that nationally, the RAE is the majority of eligible voters—almost 57%. And in 2016, for the first time in U.S. history, they’re poised to cast the majority of votes in an election.

Take a look at our breakdown of the RAE nationally and in each of the five March 15 states. As a reminder, a person can belong to more than one subgroup in the RAE—so an unmarried Latina millennial would show up as part of all three cohorts that make up the RAE.

Rising American Electorate Unmarried Women People of Color Millennials
U.S. Vote-Eligible Population 57% 26% 30% 26%
Florida 58% 26% 36% 21%
Illinois 58% 28% 30% 27%
Missouri 46% 23% 15% 26%
North Carolina 56% 26% 29% 26%
Ohio 48% 26% 16% 21%

* In the Missouri GOP primary, if one candidate gets over 50% of the vote, they will receive all of Missouri’s GOP delegates; if no candidate gets 50%, then the delegates will be allocated proportionally.