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2016 Primary Spotlight: Arizona, Idaho, and Utah

March 21, 2016

The race is coming down to the wire for the Republicans, with Tuesday’s contests in Arizona, Idaho and Utah the last for GOP contenders until Wisconsin votes on April 5.

Here’s where the delegate counts sit as the March 22 primaries and caucuses approach:

  • Donald Trump currently has 678 delegates, 559 short of the number needed for the nomination. His closest rival, Sen. Ted Cruz (Texas), has 423 delegates, and Gov. John Kasich (Ohio) has 143. (Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida, who has suspended his campaign, also has 164 delegates.)
  • About 60 percent of all Republican delegates have been awarded so far, with Trump winning 47 percent of those. If that pace continues, Trump could end up about 100 delegates short of the 1,237 needed at the convention. To win the nomination outright, Trump needs to win more than 60 percent of the remaining delegates.
  • Among Democrats, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has 1,614 delegates (1,147 pledged delegates and 423 superdelegates) compared to 856 for Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont (830 pledged delegates and 26 superdelegates). In order to win the Democratic nomination, a candidate must have 2,382 total delegates; 2,026 pledged delegates are needed to win a majority of pledged delegates.

Here’s what at stake on Tuesday, March 22:

  • Arizona – 58 Republican delegates (winner-take-all), 85 Democratic
  • Idaho Democratic caucus – 27 delegates
  • Utah – 40 Republican delegates*, 37 Democratic

Demographically, the most interesting state in play on Tuesday is Arizona, where Latinos now make up almost one-third (31 percent) of the state’s population and 26% of its eligible voters. Yet no Democrat has won a statewide election in Arizona since 2004, and voters continue to register as Republicans faster than as Democrats or even independents.

According to Francisco Heredia of Mi Familia Vota, which tries to increase Latino voting, the principal political struggle is between the state’s two fasting-growing populations: young Latinos and older people in Arizona’s retirement communities.

All told in Arizona, the Rising American Electorate—unmarried women, people of color and millennials—make up the overwhelming majority (60%) of the eligible voters in the state.

Learn more about unmarried women in Arizona, Idaho and Utah.

* The Utah GOP primary is winner-take-all if a candidate gets over 50% of the vote, but proportional otherwise.